With colder weather now arriving it’s easy to think that the energy crisis will get worse before it gets any better.

The demand for more heating in homes and offices will only put supply under more pressure and continue to push prices in an upward trajectory.

Gas prices in the UK have more than quadrupled over the last year to highs of 180 pence per therm, from around 40p/therm this time last year. In the last month alone, prices have climbed by 70 per cent.

But how did we get into this position in the first place?

Low storage volumes, disappointing Russian flows, North Sea glitches and limited LNG deliveries in the face of still-rising Asian prices alongside tightening coal markets, have all been contributory factors.

Rough decision

The decision to permanently close the U.K’s largest offshore storage facility, Rough, in the summer of 2017 deprived the country of 70 per cent of its total gas storage capacity and increased the dependence on imported gas by pipeline from Norway and Russia, or by LNG from the US and Qatar.

The slow boat to China

With China’s economy bouncing back as the country emerges from the after-effects of COVID-19, there has been record demand for gas to keep machinery running and the lights on.

To satisfy this, China’s imports of gas via super-chilled tankers were expected to surge by almost a fifth, meaning fewer shipments travelling to Europe from countries such as Qatar.

Russian gas roulette

Russia’s state-backed gas company, Gazprom, has refused to increase its exports to Europe, to help meet the high demand – despite record-high prices across the continent – in what is seen as a strategic move by Vladimir Putin.

Adding fuel to the fire

A large fire at the interconnector site, near Ashford in Kent, has severely impacted on electricity imports from the sub-sea cable that runs between France and Britain.

The IFA1 interconnector has been used to import electricity from France, to support the UK grid, since 1986. It was only operating at half capacity at the time of the fire because of planned maintenance work and is expected to continue to run at reduced capacity until the end of March due to this latest incident.

The energy mix

A more diversified energy mix mitigates against supply issues because there are more options to get around the problem. Countries that have prioritised domestic low-carbon energy are less prone to risk and able to ride out the storm easier.

But low wind output and a lack of investment in other forms of renewable energy, as some see it, means there isn’t enough green energy being produced in the U.K to meet demand without firing up environmentally damaging, fossil fuel-burning power stations or importing energy from abroad.

… but it’s not all bad news.

On 1 October, commercial electricity will start to flow on the 450-mile North Sea Link, the world’s longest sub-sea power cable, connecting British and Nordic power markets for the first time.

Supply will initially be limited to about half of its 1,400-megawatt capacity, with plans to gradually increase to full output by the start of next year.

The first half of June has highlighted just how challenging it can be to secure the best business energy procurement deal if you’re not armed with the right information.

Despite what the most bullish energy consultant might say, no-one can predict the future, especially not when it comes to business energy prices.

Too many factors outside the control of suppliers and brokers come into play for that to be the case, whether they are geopolitical or meterological.

However, beyond doubt, the first half of June has been a period when prices have continued to be on the up, both in terms of gas and electricity.

Despite the warm weather the UK has experienced for the majority of June, gas prices continued on an upwards trajectory. Contracts have largely been dictated by an overall strengthening across global energy markets, with oil, in particular, displaying an impressive recovery.

Storage issues

However, other fundamentals have contributed to the bullish sentiment. A strong demand for LNG supply in Asia, combined with the continent’s lucrative pricing, has reduced deliveries into the UK and Europe and impacted storage levels that are replenishing slower than previous years due to a lack of surplus supply.

Scheduled maintenance and unplanned outages have also played their part in regard to price increases this month, limiting imports into the UK. As a result, the system has seen very few periods of oversupply despite low demand for heating.

Carbon conundrum

Meanwhile, wind generation has underperformed once again this month, adding to some of the gains we have seen in recent weeks. A lack of consistent wind generation has meant that reliance on gas-fired power was unseasonably high.

The hot weather we have enjoyed this month has also increased demand for cooling across the country, creating an additional challenge for a stretched energy mix.

Rising carbon prices have played a role behind increases on the power curve too, as this makes fossil fuels such as gas, oil and coal more expensive. An unwanted variable at a time when low carbon generation sources are in limited supply.

Oiling the wheels

OPEC+ members agreed to a gradual increase in production at the start of the month which helped oil prices (both Brent Crude and WTI) to reach a two-year high.

The International Energy Agency also called for a further increase in production to help meet expected demand over the next 12 months. Some projections even expect oil demand in 2022 to be greater than 2019.

As such, the agency has called on OPEC+ to increase output by 1.4 million BPD by next year, with a number of leading analysts predicting oil to trade at $100 a barrel in 2022.

Knowing your megawatts from your megabytes is crucial for booming broadband providers and Internet Service Providers (ISPs).

IT and the internet is one of the boom industries of the last 12 months due to the changing behaviours brought about by the global pandemic

With working from home and home schooling becoming ‘the new norm’ during lockdown it has highlighted the need for an improved broadband network that covers all of the UK not just certain postcodes.

This increased demand – UK internet use has more than doubled in 2020, according to Openreach – has seen tech companies roll out network expansion plans and upgrades, creating thousands more jobs in this sector.

With increased demand comes the need for additional power supplies and meter installation is only the start of the process.

Clarity in energy reporting

To be able to understand and therefore save on energy procurement costs, it goes without saying that a business needs to know how much energy it is consuming in the first place – and when and where.

It is advisable for companies with a high volume of meters, such as a broadband provider or an ISPs to consolidate the captured data from meter readings in one place, such as an energy management portal, where it can easily be monitored and digested.

EM-Powered allows users to have a clear view of all their meters in one place, making it ideal for clients with 50+ meters on their portfolio.

Energy consumption and spend can be tracked on a monthly basis across all sites and can be broken down into bespoke groups, dependant on the client’s preference of reporting.

Only pay for what you use

One of the many added benefits to an energy management portal, such as EM-Powered, is that it helps to mitigate against errors in energy billing.

Invoice validation is a critical aspect to energy cost control because our experience tells us that as many as one in five energy bills are incorrect, with an average overcharge amounting to three to five per cent of the bill’s overall value.

EM-Powered helps to flag up any anomalies that might come about through misread meter readings or the wrong tariff being applied to a meter.

To find out more about EM-Powered, please visit our dedicated web page or you can speak to our specialist consultant Billy Pryke on 01225 867722.